Yeah, we are switching patterns, but neither the old, nor the new, is good for rain in this area.
We had a large blocking system just sitting there to the north, bringing cold, dry air towards us, and taking any storms south of us before turning them north well too far offshore to do any good. The ground level parameters have actually been decent to get pop-up type storms each day, and you notice it does cloud up like somethings trying to happen. But they reach a certain height and get squashed by the stable cap in place, resulting in little more than a spit of rain here and there.
Now the jet stream moved on up to northern Canada and kicked that blocking system out of there. So we'll get warm, dry air, with storms staying to the north. Yay.
Models do show a sharp cold front dipping across the interior late in the week. But it should stall, and dissipate somewhere around the Ohio Valley next weekend, with any leftover moisture perhaps going north of us. How the precipitation holds together on the southern side will mean everything. Too early to tell for sure yet. But possible tropical moisture feeding in from the gulf would make it a lot wetter, possibly giving the southern end the juice to hold together and get to us, which would be nice. So if you like rain, you're cheering for that system in the tropics to develop, and this front to grab it and bring it inland.
The "super long term" after that doesn't look good for rain either, with yet another dry pattern setting in. This weekend looks like our chance during the switchover, and it's highly questionable.
We had a wet summer, but fall isn't looking good for the steelhead lovers.