Heavy Rain

[outsider]

We had a storm about 3 hours ago. Poured for almost an hour. Just what I needed. My son and I are going to Maple Grove Raceway this weekend for the national event. We'll see.

 

[gulfgreyhound]

Up to 30 inches predicted!!! Thats 300 inches of snow!! Yikes!! GG

 

[FarmerDave]

salmonoid wrote:

Accuweather is the ultimate click-bait. They name storms and overhype everything. Drama out the wazoo.

True, but we could say that about nearly every outlet.

Bu notice that the rainfall prediction maps are all similar to NOAA in this one. Upwards of 30 inches in some locations.

I think Weather Channel is even worse. I like their videos, but it seems you can't watch a video on there without hearing about global warming or climate change.

I also think Accuweather is on average, more accurate than Weather channel.

That said, I think it is better to plan for the worst and hope for the best in cases like this.

I'm not a weather nerd. Like I said, where's pcray.;-)

Edit: Also now seeing that most (including NOAA) are now saying it could stall at the coast and jog south before heading inland. This likely means even more precip.

 

[FarmerDave]

gulfgreyhound wrote:
Up to 30 inches predicted!!! Thats 300 inches of snow!! Yikes!! GG

Snow? You just had to go there, didn't you. ;-)

 

[gulfgreyhound]

Snow blowers anyone? GG

 

[salmonoid]

FarmerDave wrote:

salmonoid wrote:

Accuweather is the ultimate click-bait. They name storms and overhype everything. Drama out the wazoo.

True, but we could say that about nearly every outlet.

Bu notice that the rainfall prediction maps are all similar to NOAA in this one. Upwards of 30 inches in some locations.

I think Weather Channel is even worse. I like their videos, but it seems you can't watch a video on there without hearing about global warming or climate change.

I also think Accuweather is on average, more accurate than Weather channel.

That said, I think it is better to plan for the worst and hope for the best in cases like this.

I'm not a weather nerd. Like I said, where's pcray.;-)

Edit: Also now seeing that most (including NOAA) are now saying it could stall at the coast and jog south before heading inland. This likely means even more precip.

I would say that about all the businesses whose primary business is not predicting weather, but delivering weather. Accuweather and the Weather Channel jumped the shark a long time ago; they are now "reality" weather channels and they make their money hyping and dramatizing weather. Most weather forecasters on your local TV newscast aren't meteorologists either. They're broadcasters who read the weather and it is the minority who actually majored in meteorology or understand meteorology.

Agreed that most of them are lifting the actual forecast from the weather agencies. Between NOAA and NWS, they have pretty much everything covered.

Usually insightful is to goto weather.gov and drill down to a county level. Look for the Forecast Discussion link. You'll tend to get more specifics in the discussion, some speculation about forecast possibilities, and in some cases, a good dose of humor.

For instance, from the NWS Wilmington, NC office:

".SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 PM Tuesday...Hazard additions include `Flash Flood
Watch` across SE NC and NE SC Thursday through Saturday, with
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings maintained, as well as a
Tropical Storm Watch over interior NE SC.

This is shaping up to be a very dangerous scenario, as Florence
nears our coast and stalls, unprecedented, and life-threatening
flooding may unfold. As a Cat-4 system, ocean overwash across
the barrier islands is becoming more likely, associated with
storm surge, and right now forecast to inundate between 7-11
feet along the Pender/New Hanover beaches, north of the center
of Florence initially. If the slow SW drift of Florence pans
out, this to bring very dangerous conditions to the NE South
Carolina coast as well, late Friday into Saturday.

Isolated tornadoes will become a threat Thursday along the NC
coast, as helicity associated with the rain/shower bands of
Florence`s NW quadrant begin to impinge the SE NC coast."

 

[sarce]

PA may eventually see some minor flooding from the remnants but not until next week. It is not taking a typical track up the coast after landfall.

Current forecast is to stall out just off the NC coast by Thursday evening, sit for a day, then drift SW and landfall in SC. Then gets pushed toward the southern Appalachians and falls apart over the mountains of GA/TN/SC.

The hype is very justified for the Carolinas but for MD and PA...not so much. Heck DC even declared a state of emergency and now there isn't even going to be an inch of rain there. The same high pressure pushing the storm track south is the same thing that will keep most of the rain from coming up past central VA.

 

[krayfish2]

My dad lives in North Myrtle Beach. Two days ago he boarded up, loaded the car and drove in land towards Columbia. Spent the night there and then headed Inland further towards Atlanta. The forecast has the storm changing to a Southwest arc which has caused my dad to load up and drive back to Pennsylvania. He's almost 80 and he's trying to drive it straight through which makes me a little uncomfortable. If this thing stays off sure without losing a whole lot of power and just me and hers around the coast, there's going to be a lot of damage from wind and storm surge. This will be one to remember I think. At this point it appears that we may have escaped but I think that it would have to turn and come back up over US unless it heads up into Canada

 

[sarce]

Hope your dad makes it to PA, Krayfish. He's doing the smart thing staying out of the way of this one.

The remnants will pass up through western PA or Ohio early next week, it will probably have mostly rained itself out by then, but still a chance of some flood potential simply because of how wet it has been lately. If it holds together to give another 1,2, locally 3 inches of rain that will cause issues. Thankfully, as things stand now we'll avoid the 4-6"+ disaster stuff.

 

[krayfish2]

The early models had it going North and West through Roanoke / WV...... dumping 24" of rain. That would have been absolutely disastrous. Looks like we may have dodged the massive flooding up North. Hopefully the South survives the storms beating with little loss of life.

 

[afishinado]

sarce wrote:
Hope your dad makes it to PA, Krayfish. He's doing the smart thing staying out of the way of this one.

The remnants will pass up through western PA or Ohio early next week, it will probably have mostly rained itself out by then, but still a chance of some flood potential simply because of how wet it has been lately. If it holds together to give another 1,2, locally 3 inches of rain that will cause issues. Thankfully, as things stand now we'll avoid the 4-6"+ disaster stuff.

A couple of inches of rain around here next week would be considered a dry spell ... :roll:

Let's hope things aren't too bad for anyone with the storm.

 

[Canoetripper]

I hope that everyone is safe too. My daughter is kind of in the cross hairs at UNC Chapel Hill.

It has been a very different summer for me with water levels either being too high to fish where I want to because of rain or water temperatures being too high from summer air temperatures.

I want to fish this weekend now that the water temperatures are low enough, but the water levels will probably too high.

One of my fly fishing friend's son is a Freshman at Bridgewater College which is just south of Harrisonburg, VA. They have canceled classes and Harrisonburg is in the Valley of Virginia(I-81). I just hope for the best and that there is minimal damage from this Hurricane.

 

[sarce]

And literally a few minutes after my last reply, latest Euro model shows the remnants heading right through PA and bringing heavy rain...maybe I will just keep my mouth shut and let this one play out.

NC and some SC beaches are going to get destroyed, with 3 feet of rain possible in NC...going to be really, really bad down there.

Canoetripper you should be OK this weekend if you get out to fish, the heavy rain from the hurricane won't arrive until Monday/Tuesday at the earliest.

 

[Zak]

I heard rain down south until Tuesday. I'm betting we don't see anything until Tuesday night at the earliest and I'll bet that puppy is on the move when it does. I'll be surprised if it brings torrential rain. Probably just the normal post tropical slow steady 1" type of thing and streams will be just fine. Power of positive thinking.

 

[Swattie87]

Yeah, good news for us is it looks like the stall will be over by the time it reaches us and it'll be scooting to the NE. Heavy rain, but not for as long of a duration hopefully.

 

[FarmerDave]

krayfish2 wrote:
My dad lives in North Myrtle Beach. Two days ago he boarded up, loaded the car and drove in land towards Columbia. Spent the night there and then headed Inland further towards Atlanta. The forecast has the storm changing to a Southwest arc which has caused my dad to load up and drive back to Pennsylvania.

Krayfish, It almost looks like Florence is stalking your dad.;-)

If the darn thing ends up in PA, we will blame you.

Seriously though. I hope he arrives and remains safe.

 

[FarmerDave]

Surf's up.

^ Several outer banks webcams.

 

[krayfish2]

Pops said he'd be here by 6pm.....called at 9:30 from Chambersburg exit. LoL. Told me he had to give up and get a room....in Harrisburg.....which was his destination. He answered my call at 9:30pm and I could hear his wife yelling 'you forgot to turn your lights on again'. Pretty sure I would have aged 50 years if I was in that car with them for 12 hours.

Looks like this thing might rain itself out before reaching us. Here's hoping.

 

[Acristickid]

Remnants of Flo to arrive in SW PA on Monday morning , 1-2 inches of rain expected. Army Corps been dumping waters from
last week 6-9 inches of rain.

 

[salvelinusfontinalis]

It sucks having bass blown out but I hope you guys are fishing for trout in spring creeks this year.
Only started doing it heavily this past 2 months and I'm having a heck of a trout season. Today's fishing was unreal!

Looking forward to next week raising the creeks again.
Not so much for my property damage and grass