As I have said numerous times here, Blue Marsh typically “runs out of cold water” between July 22 and Aug 3. It can happen earlier than that in unusual years if there are a number of high water events earlier in the summer that force the dam operator to open all gates to lower the lake level. Even in some of those years cold water has lasted well into July, possibly because much of the lake’s volume was replaced by cooler inflow during those events.
Furthermore, a study of water temps by Greg Murphy, a former Area 6 biologist, revealed in what was essentially a low flow summer during which few or no excess discharges from the dam occurred, that water temps were cooler in Section 07 (measured just UPSTREAM from Cacoosing’s confluence) than in Section 06, as measured at the gauge. During the hottest days of summer repeated checks by Area 6 staff also revealed that Cacoosing either was not any cooler than the Tully or only a degree cooler. That was surprising and could have been the impact of the impoundment just up from the Cacoosing’s mouth.
Water temps hovering around 68 deg F at the gauge are not unusual and would not have surprised me this past weekend. The target tail-race temp is 68 deg. Cold water mixing with the sub surface discharge BEGINS when the tail-race temp at the gauge hits 68 deg three mornings in a row at 8 AM. This system allows for a couple of unusually hot days in May or very early June to not falsely trigger the cold release that would waste that resource, given that a couple of unusually hot days are usually followed by cool ones at this time of the year as is occurring today.
The ACOE and I developed this system over a three season period in the early 1980’s. The first year was an all out coldwater discharge. The lake quickly ran out of cold water. The second summer was a mixing discharge from two gate levels similar to the one that is used today except with a colder tailrace temperature target. That used up too much cold water too early in the summer as well. The third summer’s experimental tailrace temperature regime was the one that was most successful in conserving cold water the longest, thus extending the fishery the longest, and is still used today. Sixty-eight is the beginning of stressful temps.