NC PA drought-- Brookies at risk?
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dryflyguy
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And tells you where you should be fishing right now
lycoflyfisher
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You know that limestone systems are not usually representative of their surface area drainages. Your example is on the extreme side of apples to oranges.
All that to be said, much of the state could use a good soaking right now.
salvelinus
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I see what you did there 😉
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Every chance I get!
When the drought was so severe that the flow was 1.0 cfs at that Driftwood Branch gauge, by what percentage do yinz think it reduced the brookie population in the watershed?
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I’m not sure. It surely did. Temporarily anyway. I won’t argue that. But the number of fish I’ve observed alive in these conditions, in the right places, is staggering. They figure it out. Somehow.
salvelinus
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Several summers ago my wife and I hiked along Sliders Branch trib to Kettle. It was August and the stream was just puddles with no perceived flow between them. I was concerned about the trout but next Spring they were there. Trout have survived for thousands of years and I suspect they will for quite a while longer if we don't f*ck it up.
sarce
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The 2023 spawn for brook trout basically failed here in MD due to extreme low water. But last year, the flows were slightly better, and the spawn must have been great because there are YOY brookies everywhere this summer. And they have no 5-6" trout to compete with so they are surviving extremely well. Things balance out. Stack too many extremely dry fall seasons in a row though and you'd see more than just a temporary dip.
It's bad now but there's still time for rain to return before the spawn.
I too would be really curious to see some photos from the headwater brook trout streams right now.
It's bad now but there's still time for rain to return before the spawn.
I too would be really curious to see some photos from the headwater brook trout streams right now.
BradFromPotter
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Anchor ice will do a number on them.
JeffP
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In a typical year, what % of wild fish succumb to anglers, heat, and anchor ice? In a particularly bad year what %? I know it would vary but just wondering about ballpark numbers? Guesses?
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I’d suspect Mike will likely be the best source to answer that, assuming he sees this.
I have no clue. Clearly most YOY never make it to their first birthday. Good conditions year, bad conditions year, whatever. But even once a fish gets to “catchable” size, say like 4”, the natural mortality rate is still pretty high I’d guess.
Though, as some have alluded to, when conditions dictate a gap in the population structure, the mortality rate decreases temporarily to fill that gap. For example, assume a really bad spawn one year for whatever reason that essentially produces little to no survival of YOY. The next year (assuming decent spawning conditions) the survival rate of that year’s YOY will be higher, and they will likely grow faster due to less competition with slightly larger and older fish. Where it gets dicey is if you have several bad years in a row and your larger adult fish start naturally dying off. We’ve been fortunate to not have that.
Yes, and even if there is some limestone influence, water is not guaranteed. For the past few weeks the Jordan has been bone dry (where I typically fish it) for the second late summer/fall in a row. According to locals, it had not dried up in that area for the 30+ yrs that they had walked their dogs almost daily along that stream segment. I suspect that the groundwater levels never came close to recovering from the 2024 drought period. What is interesting is that farther upstream by about 5 miles where it typically dried up during many late summer/fall periods, it continues to flow.
I’m glad you included all of the above sources of mortality. There are others as well, such as predation and disease. Average annual mortality from Age 1 onward in Pa’s wild trout populations was calculated to be 60-65% based on an analysis of available age data in the PFBC’s substantial database in 2002.
To clarify one point, that being how trout are assigned ages, I’ll use an example. Trout spawned in fall, 2024 would be called young-of-year (YOY) throughout 2025. They would not be called Age 1 until January 1, 2026. As a result, the average total mortality shown above starts with fish that have survived their first growing season in the streams. Mortality of YOY is very high and various sources usually declare estimates in the 90-99% range for all fish species.
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Good stuff Mike.
This is where I think habitat makes a big difference. Streams with good physical habitat are better at protecting their fish. Why I think certain streams have fairly stable strong populations of fish, and others boom and bust. The least common denominator I’ve noticed on the consistently good ones, is good physical habitat…pools, deep runs, cover, etc.
Streams could be dry this year and Class A next year. It’s probably unusual, but it happens. See below from my friend and former AFM colleague:
I asked him about a stream that he attempted to survey for the Unassessed (wild trout) Streams Program well over a decade ago. It was bone dry when he and his crew arrived to conduct the survey one year and was full of wild ST the next. See his response below (I deleted the stream’s name).
“I think the stream you’re talking about is ………….. Creek, a direct tributary to the Susquehanna. It was dry one year and Class A ST the next. Given that it made Class A we must have found multiple year classes and at least some YOY.”
I asked him about a stream that he attempted to survey for the Unassessed (wild trout) Streams Program well over a decade ago. It was bone dry when he and his crew arrived to conduct the survey one year and was full of wild ST the next. See his response below (I deleted the stream’s name).
“I think the stream you’re talking about is ………….. Creek, a direct tributary to the Susquehanna. It was dry one year and Class A ST the next. Given that it made Class A we must have found multiple year classes and at least some YOY.”
bingsbaits
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It's quite dry here in my corner of NW PA. I have a small stream that rundsthrough my yard and has a wild Brownie population. Some very large Browns in there.
It has had no flow for almost a month now. We have been here over 60 years and it has only been this dry a couple times in those years.
Fish are holed up in the few remaining holes and the Blue Herons I see daily are hammering the fish.
Hope we get some rain soon.
It has had no flow for almost a month now. We have been here over 60 years and it has only been this dry a couple times in those years.
Fish are holed up in the few remaining holes and the Blue Herons I see daily are hammering the fish.
Hope we get some rain soon.
sarce
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Completely agree with this but will add, sometimes when you get into suburban areas with more stormwater impacts, culverts are sometimes creating the only pools with enough depth for summer refuge. Or pools below small dams. I have at times seen seemingly 80% of the trout population in a single culvert pool. Sometimes that critical habitat on otherwise poor streams is manmade which I find interesting.
The_Sasquatch
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You mean call that crick by it's proper name?
