North Central Stream Fall Conditions/Opinions

CinnamonJoe

CinnamonJoe

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MOUNT VERNON
I'm currently planning to come out in 2 weeks to spend a week trout fishing.

Base camp will be Lycoming Co for the 1st 1/2 of the week, then the latter 1/2 down in Cambria Co.

This is my annual ' cash in all my coupons with the wife/kitchen passes' trip I try to do each fall. Lately its been big game hunting out west, sometimes its been Musky fishing in WI, grouse and woodcock hunting in the great lakes or New England.

Anyhow-looking at the gage at Cross Fork on Kettle-it has not been this low-looking at this same past week in Sep-since 2020.

My goal is to blue line the Kettle and Pine drainages, so my question is: should I reschedule my trip for a time with better flows?

I know May is considered prime time up there; fall is notorious for low flows, but I wanted to do something different this year. I figured the last week of Sept would put me ahead of the main leaf drop and spawning. That was my logic.

My plans are flexible, so I could shift things out to later this fall in the hopes of higher flows, but at the same time, esp now @ 52, I love an adventure, and enjoy a little bit of that whole make 'lemonade from lemons' philosophy when it comes to my fishing and hunting trips/unknowns. So, part of me is like: just go with it, and enjoy the journey. You don't learn about making it work in low flows sitting at home.

Opinions/advice?
 
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Here's the forecast for the next 5 days.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapCli...te=CTP&textField1=41.48&textField2=-77.83&e=0

No rain in the forecast. Beyond that, who knows?

But even if the streams are too low to fish, you can enjoy camping, hiking, elk viewing, sitting around a campfire, etc. And fish Kettle Creek Lake if you choose.

The weather in that region is often ideal in September. Not too hot, not too cold. And it's typically uncrowded in September.
 
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Yeah, that forecast is what prompted my inquiry LOL.

Not that we need a hurricane frolicking up the coast/inland, but there is a 50% chance a tropical system may form in the Atlantic in next 7 days. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
A wise friend of mine once gave me the following advice when pondering whether to cancel a trip under similar pretenses. “More time upstate, is better than less time upstate.”

Just go. Whatever the conditions. You’ll still enjoy yourself.

If you’re up there, and you get a decent rain after this period of low water, you’ve hit the lotto. You can’t hit the lotto at work or on the couch. Point the truck north IMO.
 
Anyone interested in trout habitat should walk along small, forested freestone streams during droughts. You can really see the importance of pool and cover habitat.

On small freestone streams during drought the pools are the only places with enough water to keep fish wet. The stretches between pools have very little water or sometimes NO water, i.e. dusty dry.

During higher flows, the importance of pool habitat is not as obvious. The riffles and pocket water can l look pretty good and fish pretty good with plenty of water.

But during severe droughts, those places are either dry or have just a bare trickle.
 
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GANGGREEN said:
It's pretty miserable right now. Just saying....
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We just started a hot stretch here in the upper midwest (91° right now-my little daughter who just finished her soccer match looks like a boiled lobster) but its supposed to break down the middle of next week. We haven't had rain in over a week, but we had a wet summer. The farmers are loving this dry spell and heat, its helping accelerate all the corn and beans dry down for harvest. If we had rain, I'd send some to PA!
 
If re-scheduling isn’t an issue, it may not be the worst plan. But any fishing is better than no fishing. The Kettle & Pine systems are both rough right now. I was up in crossforks about 3-4 weeks ago and it was super low and it really hasn’t rained since. You may be better off posting up around state college area where you have more spring feed creek options. Flows are low there as well, but there is always water.
 
BradFromPotter said:
Don't bother trying to fish any blue lines up here. I have never seen it this low getting close to October.
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Well-only so much intel a guy a time a time zone away can piece together LOL-so all of it: glass 1/2 empty/full, harsh reality, perpetual optimism etc is greatly appreciated for perspective.

Like I said, comparing this past week's flows at the Cross Forks gage to archived USGS data, the last time the Cross Forks gage was this low for the same week was in 2020.

On the flip side, something like this might have impact 🤷🏻‍♂️:
Screenshot_20250914-073503.png
 
CinnamonJoe said:
Well-only so much intel a guy a time a time zone away can piece together LOL-so all of it: glass 1/2 empty/full, harsh reality, perpetual optimism etc is greatly appreciated for perspective.

Like I said, comparing this past week's flows at the Cross Forks gage to archived USGS data, the last time the Cross Forks gage was this low for the same week was in 2020.

On the flip side, something like this might have impact 🤷🏻‍♂️: View attachment 1641245008
Click to expand...
Let's hope not flooding would not help.
 
Not for 1 second would I hope for a hurricane and all the potential destruction, beneficial rains aside.
 
Kettle Creek (Cross Fork) is at 9 cfs. Yes, this is very low, and doesn’t make for fun fishing.

Kettle’s gauge color is orange. This means it’s somewhere between the 10th to 25th percentile for this date across the gauge’s history. What does this mean in practical terms? Somewhere between 1 in 10, and 1 in 4 years, on this date, the flow has been lower.

So, it hasn’t been this low, since the last time it was this low…On average, 4-10 years ago. Flows are low, and won’t produce very good fishing, but this nothing out of the statistical ordinary. The fish are fine.
 
I know it is better than NC but Central PA is pretty dry too. I took this photo of myself today on a rock I fished from in June. I was desperately trying to reach a fish on the far bank then. I waded to the top of my waders to get to it. The rock gave me just enough height to be able cast. Today my ankles were barely submerged on my once precarious perch.
PXL_20250915_154413017.RAW-01.COVER.jpg


I caught some fish, missed a bunch, and had lots of refusals. All the fish I caught were small and in the faster water. I saw some decent fish in the pools but it is crazy clear and virtually no flow. It was nice getting out but I wouldn't drive from the Midwest to fish PA unless we get some rain.
 
There is no rain in the forecast for the next 2 weeks.
Personally, I would change plans and go to the central PA limestoners
You'll still have decent flow, cool water, and flies hatching to get some surface activity.

I know the NC part of the state is beautiful country.
But central PA is pretty nice too
And you can still have some good fishing.
Sometimes you just gotta go with the flow......
 
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