November/December Steelies

Every year, we go through this on the PA streams because of all the guys who get hope-based amnesia as to what normal conditions are and get disappointed when the October water levels and hence fishing is not what they'd like....

1) The PA creeks are very flashy and even under optimal rain conditions go up and down like poop through a goose until the trees stop sucking water after the leaf fall. It's worse this year because things (as in the progress of Autumn) are late because September and the first third of October were pretty warm. I'd say the leaves up here are a week or more behind normal. What minor degree of stability you get in water levels is accordingly delayed as well.

2) On Walnut Creek in particular (and somewhat to a lesser degree on Elk) there is a different problem that does not bode well for flows. Development and paving and hence, the proliferation of impermeable surfaces that do not allow for percolation into the water table have probably increased several fold over the past 15 years or so. The streams are already ground water input poor and cannot really afford this additional loss of natural systems. The result of all this is streams that are even more flashy.

So long as rains are somewhere near normal, November, especially the latter half will bring more reliable flows. But with all the development, I'm not optimistic the difference will be that meaningful.
 
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