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Re: What conditions make for a good spinnerfall?

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2008/1/31 17:19
From Pretty much everywhere at some point, Thorndale today.
Posts: 12955
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I do make sense out of it, and agree to a given point. I just think it is a poor predictor of spinner fall for a given evening.

Several days worth of poor hatches falling all at once will still outnumber 1 day's worth of a strong hatch.

If a hatch has 10 days of spinner falls, only 1 or 2 need to be especially successful to ensure the next generation. I think you overestimate their success rate. Well more than half of the bugs may fail at their 1 mission, and that number can vary greatly year to year.

Like many other species, the mayfly's evolutionary strategy is overkill. i.e. a huge number of bugs in a short time period, each capable of producing a huge number of offspring, but a relatively pitiful individual success rate.

Posted on: 2011/2/14 8:58


Re: What conditions make for a good spinnerfall?

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2009/4/1 21:52
From Johnstown, PA
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YEP!!! That's what i mean when i say there may be a huge hatch of duns for several days and then , the adults coming back to mate may be sporadic but enough to ensure that some eggs make it. The reverse is possible too , in fact i've seen it , the Cahill hatch is often slow/sporadic over several days and then there's a huge spinnerfall. Have you ever noticed that different species of spinners do a different "mating dance" than others? Some do the up and down dance and some do the back and forth. LOL figure that one out.

Posted on: 2011/2/14 9:28


Re: What conditions make for a good spinnerfall?

Joined:
2008/1/31 17:19
From Pretty much everywhere at some point, Thorndale today.
Posts: 12955
Online
Ok, I'm getting confused.

The original question: What conditions favor a strong spinner fall? Presumably the purpose is to increase one's chances of timing it right.

You hold that a good hatch of duns makes a good spinner fall, but then also agree that local weather conditions can have a great effect on the strength, timing, duration, etc. of the spinner fall.

I don't think that gets anyone any closer to a usable truth. What we want to know is which weather conditions cause what?

FWIW, the one thing we are all agreeing on is wind. Wind is a bad sign for your chance of getting a good spinner fall that day.

Posted on: 2011/2/14 10:15


Re: What conditions make for a good spinnerfall?

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2009/4/1 21:52
From Johnstown, PA
Posts: 4460
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I'm not an entomologist.......but i did stay at a Holiday in once. Wind would be a good thing to avoid if looking for a spinnerfall , i agree with that 100%. How about humidity? Personally i think bugs like high humidity , but not rain , so high humidity without rain.....????

Posted on: 2011/2/15 8:50


Re: What conditions make for a good spinnerfall?

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2009/4/1 21:52
From Johnstown, PA
Posts: 4460
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How about a partly cloudy , windless day where it seems like it's gonna rain all day but doesn't?

Posted on: 2011/2/15 16:40



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