El Niño and Fly Fishing

It's stupid.
 
He presented information about El Nino and proposed that winter fishing conditions might be more favorable than on average. Why is that stupid?
 
Good read, as I stated on your post on FB, Im hoping that this warming trend, if its constant throughout the winter months, will produce better hatches in the spring/early summer.


 
This is a very good read and very timely as I've been enjoying the lunkers throughout fall. I am still planning to fish this weekend as well.


Anyone know at what temperature the fishing will slow?

 
Anyone know at what temperature the fishing will slow?

I have heard and experienced at around 40 F is when it really takes a dip from typical activity. This is mainly for wild trout as stocked trout continue to feed in colder conditions.

As for the article, very good read. I knew of the El Nino and the fact that it would have a possible positive effect on the fly fishing but did not know exactly what an El Nino was. Thanks for laying it out clearly.

I have caught a trout on a dry in PA in every month except Dec, Jan, and Feb and with the warmer temperatures hopefully I can check off those months this winter :-D
 
Nice article. Only thing I don't understand is the following statement where it says October was the world's warmest ever, but then goes on to say the warmest October in America since 1963:

In fact, according to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), the month of October was the world’s warmest ever recorded for that month, and it was the warmest October in America since 1963.

 
Thanks. PocketWater, this past October was the warmest average temperature worldwide for any October ever recorded. It was also the warmest month of October in America alone since 1963. Sorry that was a little confusing.
 
bbillings30 wrote:
Thanks. PocketWater, this past October was the warmest average temperature worldwide for any October ever recorded. It was also the warmest month of October in America alone since 1963. Sorry that was a little confusing.

Still confused. If it was the warmest October in the history of the world, then it would obviously be the warmest October in America, regardless the year, correct? Maybe I'm dense and not comprehending this for some reason after a week of my mind melting at work.
 
Generally, an El Nino strengthens the southern stream of the jet stream and weakens the northern. The southern stream is generally what brings our coastal storms, so yes, we are more likely to get the big storms. With the lack of a northern stream, though, there'll be a lack of arctic air, and thus more rain/less snow. The south and east coast tend to be wetter, and cooler due to the cloud cover. The truly arctic shots that the northern stream brings are generally absent, though (no Alberta clippers, for instance). Due to that, the Midwest tends to be much warmer. PA's temperatures can vary as we are at the intersection of the warmer than normal Midwest air and cooler than normal southern/coastal air. Whether PA gets slightly warmer or cooler temps overall is unknown and may depend on which end of the state your talking, but either way we'll get less clipper type storms, more coastals, and those coastals will be more cold rain than snow. We're less likely to see those super cold 10 degree shots.

As another highpoint, the California drought will get a serious respite as those southern stream storms slam into California, drenching the lower elevations and leading to very high snow pack in the Sierra's. They'll be complaining about mudslides instead.

FWIW, there was some question over how the El Nino would interact with "the blob", which was an area of warmer than typical sea surface temperatures off Oregon/Washington/British Columbia for the last few years. That blob is what bent the northern stream and led to our last 2 colder than average winters in the Midwest and eastern US, as well as caused the California drought. The blob is separate from el nino/la nina, it was a separate phenomenon. It's largely been answered, though. The El Nino won. It forced storms into that area and "the blob" is pretty much gone.

So the remaining question is when the El Nino peaks. Some think it'll peak early, and a weakening el nino in late winter could lead to some wild swings in late winter/early spring weather. February 2010 was such a scenario.
 
PocketWater wrote:
bbillings30 wrote:
Thanks. PocketWater, this past October was the warmest average temperature worldwide for any October ever recorded. It was also the warmest month of October in America alone since 1963. Sorry that was a little confusing.

Still confused. If it was the warmest October in the history of the world, then it would obviously be the warmest October in America, regardless the year, correct? Maybe I'm dense and not comprehending this for some reason after a week of my mind melting at work.

The key word is "since"; what they are saying is this Oct is the warmest (#1) and 1963 was #2.
 
Quote:

PocketWater wrote:
Quote:

bbillings30 wrote:
Thanks. PocketWater, this past October was the warmest average temperature worldwide for any October ever recorded. It was also the warmest month of October in America alone since 1963. Sorry that was a little confusing.


Still confused. If it was the warmest October in the history of the world, then it would obviously be the warmest October in America, regardless the year, correct? Maybe I'm dense and not comprehending this for some reason after a week of my mind melting at work.


The key word is "since"; what they are saying is this Oct is the warmest (#1) and 1963 was #2.


I'll disagree with your take on that...

This last October's temps were the highest recorded worldwide, averaged across the entire planet. Here in America, we had the warmest Oct on record since 1963. That makes 1963 the warmest recorded here in America, but this recent Oct in America, was cooler.

Still possible to have the highest worldwide record and still not be the hottest for each individual country, it's all about the maths.
 
ok, i see that....tx
 
Interesting
And it seems to explain the cycle of mild/harsh winters, that I can remember going way back.

One thing that kinda puzzles me though:
The winter of 2011-2012 was one of the warmest that I can ever remember. And according to that chart, we were in a pretty large La Nina that year - pacific ocean temps cooler than normal. Shouldn't that have brought a harsh winter that year?

Anyway, I'm enjoying this mild (so far)winter. But am not going to assume it's going to last until spring.
I seem to remember last winter being pretty mild until after the holidays. Then the bottom fell out
 
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