Here’s what I think is likely to happen. I’m not saying this is EXACTLY what will happen, but after observing recovery efforts in half a dozen or so similar watersheds to the Red Mo (fairly large, mostly forested, freestone systems with AMD issues severe enough to render the main stem of those watersheds lifeless, or nearly lifeless) I think this, or something close to it, is the most likely outcome. All those other watersheds have followed a very similar recovery path, and I don’t see why Red Mo would be any different.
Also, the below is likely to happen whether or not you stock the watershed once it reaches a point in recovery where it can support stocked fish, which, regardless of species generally have less acidity tolerance than stream bred fish of the same species. Yes, the watershed is also already being stocked on the Black Mo side. And yes it probably should NOT be stocked, now, or after AMD remediation. Different conversation for a different place and time, and thread.
Once the Red Mo is capable of supporting stocked fish, I think it’s likely it will be stocked, regardless of whether it should be. It’s a fairly large freestone stream with good public land access. I’m sure there will be high demand from local anglers to see it stocked, and I don’t readily see a scenario where that’s not catered to in today’s PA Trout angling culture.
As recovery efforts begin, you will first see Brook Trout begin to repopulate the main stem, downstream of remediation points, and where thermal conditions allow for it. Yes, AMD remediation does have a general cooling effect on the water in the Summer. The water coming from the mines comes out at roughly 50 deg or so, the same as a true limestone spring. Yes, it warms some by the time it is treated and ends up back in the stream, but, this water is cooler than the water would be if it was flowing normally on the surface, and not artificially trapped below the surface in the mines. The net effect is cooler water. The upper WB Susky, and some of the systems in Skuke Co. clearly demonstrate this. You can end up with fairly large freestone streams, larger than you’d expect otherwise, with temperatures capable of supporting wild Trout.
From when remediation efforts start, usually targeting the largest AMD discharges first, most bang for the expense buck, you’ll see Brook Trout show up (re-colonizing from elsewhere in the watershed) in relatively low numbers mind you, fairly quickly. Within a couple years. The Brook Trout population in the main stem (again where thermally viable) will grow, and you’ll have a period of time, perhaps 5-20 years or so from when remediation efforts begin, where there will be a decent, or even good, wild Brook Trout fishery for a while. Then, as the average PH continues to improve, the Browns will start to show up. (Brookies have better acidity tolerance than Browns, by roughly 0.5-1.0 in PH value.) Again from elsewhere in the watershed where they are already established. The Browns are already there in numerous tributary streams on the Red Mo side, and most of the wild fish in the Black Mo, below the dam anyway, are Browns. They’re there, and when conditions in the main stem of Red Mo allow for it, they will show up. Once they do, the takeover is relatively quick. Within a period of about 5 years or so, you will go from catching all Brookies, to mostly Browns.
Stocking, IMO, will only expedite this takeover, as wild Browns seem to deal with being stocked over better than Brookies do.
This is all good. A recovered stream is still a huge win. Both for the Red Mo itself, and all downstream waters. But yes, I agree with Josh, in time, the Red Mo will likely be a pretty a good wild Brown Trout stream, based on similar projects to date in PA waters.