The subjects of limited RT reproduction in Pa and temperature sensitivity come up periodically here. Yesterday, I happened to be doing some research and stumbled across two scientific publications that refreshed my memory. Here is the long and short of it:
Primary limits on reproduction: Water temps that are too warm (higher than 56 deg F) or too cold (42 deg F or lower) limit or prevent reproductive success, despite the fact that RT adults survive quite well at higher temps. These temps that affect reproductive success fall well within the range of typical Pa freestone temps, but not limestoner temps near their source. Eggs will not develop normally in the fish if constant water temps of 56 deg F or higher are encountered. Temps not exceeding 54 deg F are preferable for a period of at least 6 months prior to spawning. How many streams in Pa do not exceed 54 deg F during the summer? Likewise, excessive losses of eggs occur during incubation in the redds if temps fall below 42 deg F. Think about Pa winters, which explains why fall spawning of Pa rainbows is not a good strategy.
This does not necessarily explain two streams in the Allegheny drainage, but to my knowledge those are the only two freestone exceptions with substantial multiple year classes of fish that have been found in Pa. and I don't have enough knowledge of those to express an opinion as to the local effects that allow them to be exceptions. Additionally, I don't know whether or not they still support wild RT pops. I think, however, that the first paragraph above provides good guidance with respect to what the problem probably is with RT reproduction in Pa.
Warm RT fisheries: As for adult RT survival and fishing, one study of a formerly very successful fishery in which water temps over the years gradually increased due to urbanization revealed that water temps that exceeded 68 deg F resulted in substantially more mortality than did the C&R fishing that was occurring over those fish during those warmer water temp periods. The fishery declined. So water temperatures alone, just like the ones we see annually below Blue Marsh Dam during the summer in the Tully DH Area, were enough to cause considerable mortality.
Primary limits on reproduction: Water temps that are too warm (higher than 56 deg F) or too cold (42 deg F or lower) limit or prevent reproductive success, despite the fact that RT adults survive quite well at higher temps. These temps that affect reproductive success fall well within the range of typical Pa freestone temps, but not limestoner temps near their source. Eggs will not develop normally in the fish if constant water temps of 56 deg F or higher are encountered. Temps not exceeding 54 deg F are preferable for a period of at least 6 months prior to spawning. How many streams in Pa do not exceed 54 deg F during the summer? Likewise, excessive losses of eggs occur during incubation in the redds if temps fall below 42 deg F. Think about Pa winters, which explains why fall spawning of Pa rainbows is not a good strategy.
This does not necessarily explain two streams in the Allegheny drainage, but to my knowledge those are the only two freestone exceptions with substantial multiple year classes of fish that have been found in Pa. and I don't have enough knowledge of those to express an opinion as to the local effects that allow them to be exceptions. Additionally, I don't know whether or not they still support wild RT pops. I think, however, that the first paragraph above provides good guidance with respect to what the problem probably is with RT reproduction in Pa.
Warm RT fisheries: As for adult RT survival and fishing, one study of a formerly very successful fishery in which water temps over the years gradually increased due to urbanization revealed that water temps that exceeded 68 deg F resulted in substantially more mortality than did the C&R fishing that was occurring over those fish during those warmer water temp periods. The fishery declined. So water temperatures alone, just like the ones we see annually below Blue Marsh Dam during the summer in the Tully DH Area, were enough to cause considerable mortality.