Grannom predictions?

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blitzinstripes

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Anyone betting on grannoms popping early? Little bit of a cool down this week but it doesn't appear it's going to last. Lots of early buds and blossoms this year. Spring is coming early, mates.
 
Saw this the other day. Still think it’s about a week or two too early but they were taking caddis like nymphs on Friday on a popular central PA freestoner
 

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hysteria. We are already getting people misidentifying black/brown caddis (sz 18, may be 16) as grannoms....like what happens every other year. I looked at one of my early indicators Sunday and no bugs whatsoever. The trees are "ahead of" the streams this year. Unlike other warm years (2013), this year the warm days overlapped very high, murky water. Water temps have been high-ish but the sun hitting the bottom has been muted by the water conditions. With the cold snap (or really seasonal temps) over the next 5-7 days, the earliest I predict in central PA is late next week or the first week in April. Still a bit early. Lows have been/will be in the low to high 20s the next couple of days. BWOs are appearing in better numbers but not yet at their peak. The forsythia bushes are only starting to pop. They will get here. Nymphing has been good though.
 
hysteria. We are already getting people misidentifying black/brown caddis (sz 18, may be 16) as grannoms....like what happens every other year. I looked at one of my early indicators Sunday and no bugs whatsoever. The trees are "ahead of" the streams this year. Unlike other warm years (2013), this year the warm days overlapped very high, murky water. Water temps have been high-ish but the sun hitting the bottom has been muted by the water conditions. With the cold snap (or really seasonal temps) over the next 5-7 days, the earliest I predict in central PA is late next week or the first week in April. Still a bit early. Lows have been/will be in the low to high 20s the next couple of days. BWOs are appearing in better numbers but not yet at their peak. The forsythia bushes are only starting to pop. They will get here. Nymphing has been good though.
Nymphing is always good!

But I'd mostly agree on the hysteria part.. Damn near the same thing happened last year with everybody predicting early hatches due to a few warmer days in Feb and March. Well, what do ya know, the LJ grannoms ended up at peak swarm on tax day weekend just like every other year.

One good part about high water and warmer/cooler temp swings is longer hatch windows. Which is what we could end up with (a predictable bite for weeks on central PA rivers is a rare treat these days). But the heat of the action seems to hit about where it normally does in the hatch chart regardless of the weather every year +/- a week.
 
I was at the Breeches at Allenberry Sat 03/16 and saw a few small dark caddis. I also saw what looked to be a double winged insect (think bi-plane) coming off that was also dark and a little larger, Tried but couldn't catch one, Did pretty good nymphing in the two hours. 6 large browns and lost as many.
 
I was at the Breeches at Allenberry Sat 03/16 and saw a few small dark caddis. I also saw what looked to be a double winged insect (think bi-plane) coming off that was also dark and a little larger, Tried but couldn't catch one, Did pretty good nymphing in the two hours. 6 large browns and lost as many.
The double winged insects were small black stones.
 
Yesterday...

Not really, but I can share that we had caddis all day long on Sunday in Berks County.
 
The earliest I saw grannoms in 2023 was March 22. Here in northern Mifflin County the forsythia is now in full bloom below 900 feet in elevation. Same for the Daffodils and crocuses The Red Maple flower buds are ready to open on the mountain sides. Any day now.
 
The earliest I saw grannoms in 2023 was March 22. Here in northern Mifflin County the forsythia is now in full bloom below 900 feet in elevation. Same for the Daffodils and crocuses The Red Maple flower buds are ready to open on the mountain sides. Any day now.
I agree. Shake a birch tree that still has leaves this week and you will find caddis. We had like size 18 tan caddis, adults so we missed the emergence probably on a warmer day last week. But the fish were liking caddis imitations very much.
 
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Yesterday...

Not really, but I can share that we had caddis all day long on Sunday in Berks County.
Saw small tan caddis on the J Sunday and another reliable source reported see them too. Saw lots of Black/brown caddis on the upper J Saturday. Unfortunately, the black/brown crawl out so they are not really fishable. Might see an occasional fish slash at one on the water, but I don't have the patience to wait fro that
 
Prediction: grannoms will hatch in huge swarms.

Seriously though, if weather continues at the current trajectory, 2 weeks early for the early spring hatching is my guess
 
Saw small tan caddis on the J Sunday and another reliable source reported see them too. Saw lots of Black/brown caddis on the upper J Saturday. Unfortunately, the black/brown crawl out so they are not really fishable. Might see an occasional fish slash at one on the water, but I don't have the patience to wait fro that
I also had small tan caddis, and a lot of them, on a central PA crick. Grannoms are close. Soon.. Soon
 
In addition to lots of stoneflies and some small caddis, I saw a fair number of blue quills and a few unidentified slightly larger mayflies in Central PA on Saturday. Spoke to another angler creekside who had seen them as well, he also wasn't sure what they were. So nice to see mayflies other than BWOs.
 
The earliest I saw grannoms in 2023 was March 22. Here in northern Mifflin County the forsythia is now in full bloom below 900 feet in elevation. Same for the Daffodils and crocuses The Red Maple flower buds are ready to open on the mountain sides. Any day now.
On my way through slatington on Saturday, there is a crabapple in full bloom on main st.
Surely due to the warm micro climate caused by concrete sidewalks, macadam road and heat reflection off the buildings. Still a bit early.
 
While hatches can go early and late, I think that you still have to have the right amount of daylight hours and temperature in order to trigger the start of a hatch. If we had 79° temperatures in late February for 2 weeks I doubt that you would see the Hendrickson start.
 
While hatches can go early and late, I think that you still have to have the right amount of daylight hours and temperature in order to trigger the start of a hatch. If we had 79° temperatures in late February for 2 weeks I doubt that you would see the Hendrickson start.
What would be your best guess on hendrickson start date up on the W Branch??
 
Well, the hendricksons could be wrapping up near callicoon and then 3 weeks later.... not even be started hatching up in deposit. Keep an eye on water temp for your best chance. I always used "3 consecutive days when the water temp first reaches / breaks 50° ".... look for the hatch to pop off.

For 35 years, started the season right around May 1st. 75% rate on hitting Hendrickson hatch. 15% it's way earlier and maybe 10% of the time, it's just getting ready to start. Spring has gotten back closer to normal temps but.... It's already rolling near state college. Still guessing a little early.
 
Well, the hendricksons could be wrapping up near callicoon and then 3 weeks later.... not even be started hatching up in deposit. Keep an eye on water temp for your best chance. I always used "3 consecutive days when the water temp first reaches / breaks 50° ".... look for the hatch to pop off.

For 35 years, started the season right around May 1st. 75% rate on hitting Hendrickson hatch. 15% it's way earlier and maybe 10% of the time, it's just getting ready to start. Spring has gotten back closer to normal temps but.... It's already rolling near state college. Still guessing a little early.
Dear kray,

For the 11 years I lived in Windsor NY the Hendricksons always started on the West Branch and Beaverkill between April 28th and May 5th. But that was 1990 to 2001. Still, they were reliably 2 weeks behind the hatch on the Lehigh River at White Haven.

Since then I haven't seen a Hendrickson hatch except for a few bugs here and there.

Regards,

Tim Murphy :)
 
The Hendrickson and blue quill hatch we saw last year was almost comically heavy. It was about a 2-hour stretch where it was so thick with bugs there was 0 point in fishing.
 
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