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Re: "GASLAND" a new documentary

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2009/10/15 12:02
From Dispositionally, one mile south of Lake LeBoeuf
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Well, the demand side of the matter is actually a good deal more complex and mixed than you represented it to be.

In September of last year, we had the largest drop in overall demand for electricity in decades. Much of this is due to the general economic downturn and will reverse itself somewhat as 2010 progresses and the economy continues to slowly recover.

All the same, check out the longer term DOE Energy Forecasts. They're forecasting out to 2035 now. You'll see that mandated efficiency standards among other things are expected to keep demand growing at a pretty moderate pace throughout the forecast period, and certainly nowhere near as precipitously as you seem to have represented the matter.

Another additional thing of note is that much of the rise in natural gas demand is predicated on the assumption that gas will be the primary energy choice in the near term future, particularly for power generation. This is by no means an assumption that is cast in stone, given the range of other options we have to choose from running the gamut from nuclear to the entire range of non-fossil sources. There is no holy writ that says that gas will, without question carry the bulk of this demand. It remains to be seen and for us to decide.

In this sense, it can be said that no small portion of the "urgency" driving the gas drilling explosion is no more than selective advocacy of the favored option of a sector of the energy industry.

Nothing wrong with that, its the way we do business in this country. Everybody's got a product we just "have" to have. But it should be seen for what it is and with all masks off..

Posted on: 2010/4/7 17:24


Re: "GASLAND" a new documentary

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2008/10/14 11:12
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Also, as far as natural gas goes, there is a large surplus of it in this country, the price for it is way down, and there is no real urgency to be drilling for it, especially in the most pristine part of our state and last stronghold of native brook trout. Certainly no urgency that warrants the risk to these areas. My belief is that the drilling industry wants to drill as much and as fast as it can before proper regulation is put into place, especially if it's on a federal level. Couple that with shortsidedness and greed on the other end of things and you have the perfect storm we are experiencing.

Posted on: 2010/4/7 20:25


Re: "GASLAND" a new documentary

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2008/1/31 17:19
From Pretty much everywhere at some point, Thorndale today.
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RLeep,

While you are right that demand fell off this year due to the recession, let me put into perspective some numbers. I love wind and solar, but the numbers are just sobering.

From 2007-2008, while energy demand declined, energy capacity increased about 1.5% to 1,010,171 MW. This 1.5% increase is less than the average yearly increase in demand, which means we have to increase it quicker than we are. But, for the sake of argument, lets say yearly 1.5% increases in total capacity will do the job. This means in 10 years, the demand will be 1,172,345, or an average increase of 16000 MW per year.

However, the part you didn't mention was that coal capacity is falling. While we are building new coal plants, the aging ones are decreasing in productivity at a faster rate, which is expected to accelerate. Coal capacity fell 1.5% last year. Thats over 7000 MW lost right there. If this keeps up (and it will), the needed yearly increase in non-coal capacity isn't an average of 16000 MW, its 23,000 MW.

Solar is but a footnote, it pales in comparison to wind. Geo too, though there is actually potential there IMO. Hydro has been pretty steady for years and its not about to change much. So, just to keep coal decreasing at 7000 MW per year, and hold gas and nuclear steady, wind has to account for 23,000 new MW per year.

Last year, wind capacity accounted for a total of about 13,000 MW, and has been increasing at about 2000-5000 MW per year. This is unprecedented growth for any industry in terms of material and manpower used (fossils need much less per MW). It's 60% growth last year alone. It's as fast as the infrastructure can handle. I do think infrastructure will grow steadily, but thats a slower process. So if we can handle 5000 new MW this year, maybe next year we can add 6000 MW, and maybe in 10 years we can be adding 15,000 MW per year. When you figure that it may take a new manufacturing plant 5 years to build and get online, well, to say you could increase faster than that is pretty unrealistic.

In any case, gas use isn't going anywhere for a while. Wind and gas will both continue to soar, though the percentage increases of wind will be more impressive because the starting value is lower, but in MW the increase in gas will be at least as much. And on top of this, current gas wells naturally give off less gas as they age, so even if you could curtail the increase in natural gas use, you still have to be drilling wells at a pretty good clip. You're ONLY chance to reduce gas use in the next decade or two is nuclear, which I'm totally on board for, but you really gotta go all out on it if you want to keep new gas wells from being drilled. Kudos to Obama for allowing 2 new nuclear plants, which is better than Bush could push through. 2 will temporarily improve matters if they don't get axed before going online, but long term its still of little help.

The DOE's energy policy is pretty sound, and based on real possibilities, IMO. They call for mandated consumption policies to hold demand in check as much as possible, coupled with radical increases in both gas and wind. Having worked for them and still doing business with DOE folk, they'd love to cut out the gas. They're doing everything they can do to promote wind manufacturing capability, and they'd like to radicly increase nuclear but the pols won't let them. They do project wind to top out around 10% of total (its at 1.3% now). Not that it'll stop growing then, they just think it'll slow down due to land availability. 10% is nothing to scoff at, its well above where hydro is now, and our landscape would be dotted with wind turbines.

grhe, I agree, drillers are rushing to buy up land and rushing to get started to avoid regulations. I agree to slowing them down until regulators get a handle on things. But due to the aforementioned issues, regulators should be quick about getting a handle on things.

Posted on: 2010/4/8 0:50


Re: "GASLAND" a new documentary
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2006/9/9 9:29
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"Regulators" cost money. PA just reduced its Department of Environmental Protection staff in the last budget mess. Now they're working on the next one due in June. Please tell your legislators that you want it done on time -- WHATEVER IT TAKES!

Posted on: 2010/4/8 9:40
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I don't like spinach, and I'm glad I don't, because if I liked it I'd eat it, and I just hate it. --Clarence Darrow


Re: "GASLAND" a new documentary

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2009/4/1 21:52
From Johnstown, PA
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Near Centralia there is a small town called Frackville , it's about 150 years old , did it get it's name from that? I know Centralia has an underground fire that has been burning for a long time , a coal mine caught on fire. The coal companies destroyed us once , after much thought on the subject of the Marcellus Shale issue i think we better pay very close attention , starting at a ground roots level , keep each other informed on local operations and observe and report to a central entity , i would not know the first thing on how to set this up but i'd be willing to observe and report to a data base.

Posted on: 2010/4/8 18:20


Re: "GASLAND" a new documentary

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2006/9/10 16:07
From Pine Grove
Posts: 2412
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Quote:

osprey wrote:
Near Centralia there is a small town called Frackville , it's about 150 years old , did it get it's name from that? I know Centralia has an underground fire that has been burning for a long time , a coal mine caught on fire. The coal companies destroyed us once , after much thought on the subject of the Marcellus Shale issue i think we better pay very close attention , starting at a ground roots level , keep each other informed on local operations and observe and report to a central entity , i would not know the first thing on how to set this up but i'd be willing to observe and report to a data base.


It's named for Daniel Frack. Maybe Fracking was named after him?

Boyer

Posted on: 2010/4/13 7:23


Re: "GASLAND" a new documentary

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2007/1/2 11:55
From Bozeman
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Osprey,

"Frack"ing is short for "fracturing", which is what is done to the shale.

Posted on: 2010/4/13 10:00


Re: "GASLAND" a new documentary

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2006/9/10 21:53
From Greensburg, PA
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For many years the legend of how Frackville was named has been written and handed down from generation to generation. Quote: "When the time came for the incorporation of the Borough, there was much discussion as to its name. Mr. Frack desired it to be called Frackville, and Mr. Haupt wished it to be called Planeville. The discussion continued until the time when the town wished to have a post office. The government refused to provide a post office until a name had been given to the town. Consequently, a decision had to be made. Mr. Frack and Mr. Haupt were in a tavern one evening, and they decided to toss a coin to settle the question. Mr. Frack won, and so the borough bears the name Frackville." That is a legend.

Posted on: 2010/4/13 10:22


Re: "GASLAND" a new documentary

Joined:
2009/4/1 21:52
From Johnstown, PA
Posts: 4460
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Thanks folks for the info , alot of very informative stuff in all your writngs and links , the more i read and educate myself on this subject the more i think we , as fly fishers and lovers of water had better do whatever we have to in order to get through this. Festus posted some links to report to and i also think somehow we should use this place as a way to keep each other informed and also to show that we're watching. If they look here and see we are activly discussing them it could have an impct.

Posted on: 2010/4/13 10:53



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