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Re: we need rain darn it

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2008/1/31 17:19
From Pretty much everywhere at some point, Thorndale today.
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Looks like a classic and strong nor-easter. Just too warm for snow.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc ... pe/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

This is showing that the rain will be mostly eastern PA. Western PA gets the front coming through, but just the fringe of the big daddy that follows it up. As of now, Eastern PA in the bullseye for some heavy rain.

And as always with these things, they do a heck of a job of predicting a storm. How strong it is, how much rain it has, etc. They get that kind of stuff dang near 2 weeks out. But as to the details of WHERE it's going to hit, it's pretty much only a day or two in advance when that becomes certain. Could go west and get western PA in on the rain too. Could go east and rain only on the big pond, leaving us all high and dry.

Posted on: 2012/4/18 9:04


Re: we need rain darn it

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2009/2/11 13:14
From Lehigh Valley
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Pcray.thanx for the post...trouble is we could use this rain as a slow steady soaker, the ground is so hard /dry that this is gonna just runoff an cause flooding and be gone.
i know im whining but last year was year of the flood this year is year of the dry .we need all the precipitation we can get, just would be nice to get the water we need how we need it.

Posted on: 2012/4/18 9:18


Re: we need rain darn it

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2008/1/31 17:19
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If it comes as that model predicts, here in eastern PA we're looking at a good day long soaker. Several inches of rain.

Not sure what more you could ask for as a drought buster.

Posted on: 2012/4/18 9:23


Re: we need rain darn it

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From Lehigh Valley
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Lmao...Soaking rain an deluge are two entirely different things, a soaking rain will get down into the ground, Nor easters usually cause extensive flooding here in eastern Pa.
A steady storm once or twice a week will give the ground or earth far better absorbtion.I have a pretty nice size garden all raised beds, been broadforking the beds this week,, the ground is extremely dry, and yes i amend the soil with a liberal 4-5 inches of compost on each bed which helps soil keep moisture as well as feed the soil an plants.

Posted on: 2012/4/18 9:59


Re: we need rain darn it

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2008/1/31 17:19
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Oh, I agree.

Some thunderstorms, for instance, can drop a half of inch of rain in a matter of 20 minutes or something. That runs right off and doesn't soak in hardly at all.

This isn't that kind of storm. If this comes true, this is a nonstop rain for 24 hours type situation.

Yeah, it can come down pretty hard at times. They can dump 3 inches total or something. And it may cause some flooding. But much of it will soak in.

This is one of those that, if it happened in February instead of April, would be 20+ inches of the white stuff for eastern PA.

Posted on: 2012/4/18 12:08


Re: we need rain darn it

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2007/5/29 14:32
From SE PA - Montgomery County
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Huh? I just looked at that map and did not see any rain headed for PA with the animation sequence. Are you sure you know how to find PA on that map??

Posted on: 2012/4/18 12:30


Re: we need rain darn it

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Program updates at noon and midnight. And does so slowly, adding an hour at a time. Right now it's only going out to 48 hours. This morning it was going out 120 hours.

So wait till 2 or so, then look. We'll see if it still says the same. Of course, it gets more accurate the closer you get.

FWIW, all of the rain was above 90 hours out (from midnight last night), with the heart of the storm hitting at 110 hrs or so, and continuing right through the 120 hr mark. That's essentially 30 hours of rainy weather, and 20 hours of constant rain without any breaks. That will all be moved up 12 hours in the latest run, of course.

P.S. If you wanna see it, you can change it from the 12z (noon) to the 0Z (midnight) run at the top. So you can view past runs of the model.

Posted on: 2012/4/18 12:36


Re: we need rain darn it

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2007/5/11 21:03
From Media, PA
Posts: 441
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I'm hoping for a deluge on Sat. followed by steady rain. Ridley is scheduled for a stocking, and nothing extends and improves the fishing like a blow out on an announced stocking day. It happened last year and the fish were really spread out, plus the truck chasers weren't able to kill their usual quotas. Mostly though we just need the rain!

Posted on: 2012/4/18 14:43


Re: we need rain darn it

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2011/5/3 12:22
From South Lebanon Township, PA
Posts: 1943
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I have an outing with a buddy I haven't fished with this year yet scheduled for Saturday. Depending on the timing of the rain (assuming it materializes) I think Sunday may fish better than Saturday, but my buddy works on Sundays...so we'll be going Saturday regardless.

The tradeoff for fishing on Saturday was that on Sunday I'd need to wash/wax the truck (haven't waxed it since last Fall) and finish mulching the landscaping, so I wasn't planning on fishing both days this weekend. Neither of those can be accomplished in a steady rain however...and the little Brookie streams may be running pretty good after a hard night of rain...so maybe with a little help from Mother Nature I will be fishing both days this weekend after all!

Posted on: 2012/4/18 14:52


Re: we need rain darn it

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2008/1/31 17:19
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Ha, I noticed in the afternoon run that it has shifted East. Before the rain cutoff on the big storm was central PA. This time it was eastern PA and really only a sliver of the state gets in on it.

Give it a few days and the track of the storm will be more certain. These things bounce around like this.

Posted on: 2012/4/18 16:34


Re: we need rain darn it

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2006/12/13 9:28
From Other side of the tracks
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They keep changing the forecast.

Now weater channel is saying no more than 30% chance for precip on any day for a week. Maybe the numbers look better further east.

This might call for desperate measures. I may have to wash my car to make it rain.

Posted on: 2012/4/19 7:04
_________________
There are certain pursuits which, if not wholly poetic and true, do at least suggest a nobler and finer relation to nature than we know. The keeping of bees, for instance." -Henry David Thoreau--


Re: we need rain darn it

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2006/10/18 15:46
From Patterson twp, Pa (Beaver Falls)
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You realize the weather is just holding off on all the rain and it's all going to come at one time...


My prediction is it's going to start coming around the 2nd week of May, and last at least 2 weeks....

Posted on: 2012/4/19 13:17
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Re: we need rain darn it

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2008/1/31 17:19
From Pretty much everywhere at some point, Thorndale today.
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Well, here's what we know:

- Cold front coming through. Everyone gets a little rain, but it's more like a line of rain, not an all day type of thing. Time frame of Saturday daytime for western PA, and Saturday evening through the overnight for eastern PA. Amount of rain uncertain, but not a gully washer. If it's more the thunderstorm type, it could be hit and miss too, perhaps giving someone a half inch but completely missing somewhere not far away.

- Sunday cool and non-rainy.

- Monday is the question mark. Major storm coming up the coast. Would enter the area after midnight Sunday night and depart Sunday evening. Sharp cutoff, meaning there's a north/south line. East of it gets extended, driving, nonstop cold rain that's going to lay down a lot of water. West of it gets nothing or just a light shower or two. That line could set up anywhere from the Ohio border over to the Jersey shore (as in the beach, not the town).

This storm will also cause a snowstorm on the NW fringes. Perhaps enough for decent accumulations. Depending on that path, it could be the Adirondaks, Vermont, etc. Or if a more western track, finger lakes region and some of it could sneak down into the northern portion of our state along the NY border somewhere.

Posted on: 2012/4/19 13:44


Re: we need rain darn it

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2006/12/13 9:28
From Other side of the tracks
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Quote:

pcray1231 wrote:

This storm will also cause a snowstorm on the NW fringes. Perhaps enough for decent accumulations. Depending on that path, it could be the Adirondaks, Vermont, etc. Or if a more western track, finger lakes region and some of it could sneak down into the northern portion of our state along the NY border somewhere.


I'm farting in your general direction.

Posted on: 2012/4/19 13:46
_________________
There are certain pursuits which, if not wholly poetic and true, do at least suggest a nobler and finer relation to nature than we know. The keeping of bees, for instance." -Henry David Thoreau--


Re: we need rain darn it

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2011/5/3 12:22
From South Lebanon Township, PA
Posts: 1943
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Looks like I may be waxing/mulching Sunday after all...

Posted on: 2012/4/19 13:51



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