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Re: Mathematical probability of locating a dropped fly

Joined:
2009/12/2 19:56
From SE Pa
Posts: 327
Offline
So, it's getting to be something like ...


P = probability of finding it.
C = color contrast of fly with surroundings (higher means more contrast)
R = Roughness of ground (tall vs. short grass, scattered leaves, etc.; higher means rougher)
A = area (as in how big is the area where you know the fly resides; higher means larger area)
Y = "youthfulness" of your eyes. Just like following a tiny dry fly in a bubble line, some eyes pick out small details better, and this degrades as you age. Higher means your better at seeing small details, lower means "older".
D = determination. How much does finding it matter to you? Whether the fish are rising, and sentimental value are included here. Higher means more determined.
M = magnetic net holder available
L= Length of Grass...
V = variation in color of fly vs. surrounding environs..
S = constant for size (squared for size18+)
I = intoxicated

.... or....

P = (C*Y*D)+(M*V) / (R*A)+(S*I)+(L/3)

Posted on: 2013/5/8 14:59


Re: Mathematical probability of locating a dropped fly

Joined:
2011/3/2 13:43
From Gamehendge
Posts: 962
Offline
I found a tandem rig I dropped in a riffle, the other day. Surprised it didnt wash away. Then again. I have eyes like a predatory raptor.

Posted on: 2013/5/8 15:14
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Re: Mathematical probability of locating a dropped fly

Joined:
2008/5/5 11:06
From King Of Prussia, Pa
Posts: 1195
Offline
You guys are horrible at math. The probability is obv 50/50. You either find it or you don't.

Posted on: 2013/5/8 15:26


Re: Mathematical probability of locating a dropped fly

Joined:
2012/10/24 19:22
From Landenberg, PA
Posts: 1652
Offline
Quote:

springer1 wrote:
So, it's getting to be something like ...


P = probability of finding it.
C = color contrast of fly with surroundings (higher means more contrast)
R = Roughness of ground (tall vs. short grass, scattered leaves, etc.; higher means rougher)
A = area (as in how big is the area where you know the fly resides; higher means larger area)
Y = "youthfulness" of your eyes. Just like following a tiny dry fly in a bubble line, some eyes pick out small details better, and this degrades as you age. Higher means your better at seeing small details, lower means "older".
D = determination. How much does finding it matter to you? Whether the fish are rising, and sentimental value are included here. Higher means more determined.
M = magnetic net holder available
L= Length of Grass...
V = variation in color of fly vs. surrounding environs..
S = constant for size (squared for size18+)
I = intoxicated

.... or....

P = (C*Y*D)+(M*V) / (R*A)+(S*I)+(L/3)


very good, but you missed out - H , H = How much you need it, ie is it the last one that matches the hatch ?

D could also be separated into D1 - Determined, a positive factor, and D2 - Desparate, an inverse factor.

and A2 - angle of the Sun ....

V is too close to C...

so....


P = probability of finding it.
C = color contrast of fly with surroundings (higher means more contrast)
R = Roughness of ground (tall vs. short grass, scattered leaves, etc.; higher means rougher)
A (1) = area (as in how big is the area where you know the fly resides; higher means larger area)
Y = "youthfulness" of your eyes. Just like following a tiny dry fly in a bubble line, some eyes pick out small details better, and this degrades as you age. Higher means your better at seeing small details, lower means "older".
I = intoxicated
S = constant for size (squared for size18+)
A(2) = angle of the Sun
D(1) = determination. How much does finding it matter to you? Whether the fish are rising, and sentimental value are included here. Higher means more determined.
M = magnetic net holder available
L= Length of Grass
D(2) = desparation.
H= How much you need it....


I think we are almost there... need maybe two or three more variables



Posted on: 2013/5/8 15:27



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