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Re: who is Michael Krancer?

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Quote:

franklin wrote:
What type of an educational background is required of inspectors?


These days you can get a degree in SH&E, but an environmental science degree would also be good. A Bachelor of science with some applicable experience or an associate degree and significant applicable experience would also be suitable.

Posted on: 2011/3/23 18:39
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Re: who is Michael Krancer?

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Quote:

pcray1231 wrote:
Quote:
All drilling in PA is MS drilling


This is very incorrect.


Maybe I should rephrase that as all PA gas drilling is in shale right now.

In 2010 there were still shallow gas wells being drilled, a couple oil wells and even one geothermal well. But they've fallen off a cliff since. I'll try to find the reference, but of the 8 remaining vertical rigs and 5 directional, all are now contracted for shale drilling, either Utica or Marcellus. Increased costs for everything from rig contracts to fracking services combined with low gas prices have made shallow drilling much less attractive.

Posted on: 2011/3/23 18:45
_________________
That money talks
I won't deny.
I heard it once.
it said, "Goodbye."
Richard Armour


Re: who is Michael Krancer?

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2008/1/31 17:19
From Pretty much everywhere at some point, Thorndale today.
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I honestly don't know about the most recent numbers. But I think you vastly underestimate the number of rigs in PA.

For shallow gas, there are roughly 100,000 working wells in PA and over 400,000 total wells (many are past the production stage and plugged). They've generally had been completing 4000 or so new wells per year for some time, but during the recent gas boom, that has increased to closer to 8000 completed wells per year. With the fall in prices, and the attractiveness of Marcellus which can be a more cost effective use for the rigs, I have no doubt that number is falling substantially, as you say.

But I really have trouble believing its zero, especially since a new pad was just cleared near my dad's place. I also have trouble believing that there are only 8 vertical rigs and 5 directional rigs left in the state, as well more than that are underway right now.

These sound more like county numbers.

Posted on: 2011/3/24 8:19


Re: who is Michael Krancer?

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Come on Pat, I thought you of all people would understand what an active rig is. That means its drilling, right now, as I type. Check out http://gis.bakerhughesdirect.com/Reports/ Put in the state and county if you like and click view report. We both know from the time they start installing a pad until the time its reclaimed could be 2-3 years. Probably less then 20% of the time is there actually a rig on that pad, actively drilling. So back of the envelope calculation suggest there are 500 or so pads in the state in the process of being constructed, drilled, fracked or reclaimed.

I'm concerned about the rate of drilling, What is the rate of water usage? What is the rate of waste production?  If you use the number of producing wells or the number of active drill pads you will grossly overstate the actual numbers and scare the crap out of people. That's what the media and unfortunately a lot of environmental groups do. If we are going to get a handle on this, we need to know accurately what the water usage really is and how much waste is actually produced. Exaggerating things 5 or 10 fold does not help.

I'm honestly glad to see conventional vertical wells become obsolete. They are higher risk and do more environmental damage then horizontal drilling ever will. I wish it would all go away but we know that's not going to happen. So rather then cry the sky is falling, let's confront the issue with actual data and facts. Only then can we manage it in a responsible manner to mitigate the detrimental effects.

As of last week there were 1720 active rigs in the US, 875 gas, 839 oil and 6 geothermal. They are 986 horizontal, 231 directional and 503 vertical rigs. A new report comes out every Friday.

Posted on: 2011/3/24 19:13
_________________
That money talks
I won't deny.
I heard it once.
it said, "Goodbye."
Richard Armour


Re: who is Michael Krancer?

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Gone4Day,

I do understand what an active rig is. I'm saying your website is either bunk, or not measuring what we think it is. It says that last year there were 6 vertical rigs in the state. Now, I don't know how many NEW shallow wells went in last year, but I know in the relatively recent past we were nearing 8000 NEW shallow wells PER YEAR. As a drilling rig will be on a single pad for at least a week, assuming no downtime, that'd say there were at the very least 150 vertical rigs at that time. Again, I don't know last year's numbers, but it was an active year, it certainly didn't decrease to 6.

I can also say I personally know the location of 6 shallow gas wells that are slated to be drilled this coming spring. We used to hunt there, and they cleared the pads last fall. Talked with them on a scouting trip, and the workers said they'd be drilled this spring, so needless to say that area is off limits for hunting for a little while. I'd be very surprised if they don't show up. Sure, one rig will probably handle em all, but thats 1, which is more than the zero you claimed would be drilling shallow wells.

You're back of the envelope calculation that said 500 wells being cleared, drilled, fracked, etc. Thats way, way low. That whole process may take a year for a shallow well, 3 or more for a Marcellus pad (well, a single Marcellus pad can have up to 12 wells). So to reach numbers in the thousands of wells per year, there's gotta be more than 500.

Posted on: 2011/3/24 22:01

Edited by pcray1231 on 2011/3/24 22:17:08


Re: who is Michael Krancer?

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Its not really "my" site Pat, its Baker Hughes, the industry standard. Their numbers are used by everybody from the media to service companies and regulators. If they are in error, let's prove it. With an army of anglers about to hit the streams, surely we can find some active rigs not listed. If they are as far off the mark as you suggest, it should be easy. I'd love to prove them wrong but I'll need more then 'I know of 6 shallow wells that are slated to be drilled'. Get me some GPS coordinates and the operator of active rigs not listed and I'll concede your point. Otherwise your just blowing smoke.

If you would have read a little more closely, I said pads not wells. As you mentioned, now they are putting 6-12 wells on each pad. Hence, fewer pads. And of course, last years data shows, a horizontal rig does not sit on the same spot for 3 years, 9-12 months maybe, 18 at most, and then its off to the next pad.

Its not like the old days when they drilled a reservoir, slapping in a well every 500 yards or less, now they are drilling the seal, getting 1000's of feet of 'pay' instead of a few hundred per well. Back in 2008 there were only a few horizontal rigs in the state and over 4600 wells were completed. Recessions don't help and only about 2500 were completed in 2009. By 2010 nearly all the vertical & directional rigs had been replaced with newer, horizontal rigs. Less then 300 wells were completed by conventional rigs while nearly 1200 wells were completed by horizontal rigs.

Since all the remaining conventional rigs seem to be in the most active devonian shale regions, my guess is they are either drilling pilot holes for horizontal rigs or trying to lock in leases before they expire. But in one way you are correct. They completed 1200 horizontal wells last year, but with 5-10X as much 'pay' per well, its the equivalent of drilling 8000 conventional ones.

PA gained 2 horizontal rigs this week, lost one vertical but gained a new thermal. What the heck is a thermal well and what's it doing in Westmoreland county?

http://thoughtcatalog.com/2011/how-to-have-a-rational-discussion/

Posted on: 2011/3/26 0:15
_________________
That money talks
I won't deny.
I heard it once.
it said, "Goodbye."
Richard Armour


Re: who is Michael Krancer?

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2008/1/31 17:19
From Pretty much everywhere at some point, Thorndale today.
Posts: 13667
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You are correct on Marcellus wells, more wells per pad, spaced more widely with more pay per well, etc.

But they're still slapping shallow wells every 500 yards or less. And those are still 1 well per pad, vertical wells. It's not that Marcellus replaced the shallow wells, it's in addition to. See pictures on the first page of this thread, specially the one by my dad's place, which shows 4 new well pads, all less than 3 years old, and from 500-1000 feet apart.

I don't have time today. But tomorrow I'll pm you approximate lat/long for the 6 shallow pads which are to be drilled this spring.

Posted on: 2011/3/26 7:09


Re: who is Michael Krancer?

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Just active rigs please. I've got a shallow gas pad only a few hundred yards from my property line at camp. They were suppose to start drilling last fall, but so far no rig has shown up. The fact that there are 6 new pads just supports my point, the pads are ready but they're just not drilling them.

Which brings up another issue, just how long can they leave a pad in a state of limbo?

Posted on: 2011/3/26 19:03
_________________
That money talks
I won't deny.
I heard it once.
it said, "Goodbye."
Richard Armour


Re: who is Michael Krancer?

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2007/12/1 15:23
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Posts: 452
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http://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/deputa ... Drilled%20by%20County.htm

this link is the most up to date from DEP on wells drilled in 2010. About the same amount of Marcellus wells as Non Marcellus. I know there are some Utica wells being drilled, but very few, I would assume some Oriskanny, are the rest in the Upper Devonian? Also, what type of rigs are drilling the non Marcellus wells that are not Utica?

Posted on: 2011/3/28 8:32


Re: who is Michael Krancer?

Joined:
2008/1/31 17:19
From Pretty much everywhere at some point, Thorndale today.
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Gone4Day,

I don't know of any active rigs at the moment. I doubt this is true of Marcellus, but on shallow gas they often don't drill during winter. I know of a few that were drilled last fall, and a few more to be drilled this spring, supposedly.

Reds, thanks. Those numbers look more realistic. The shallow gas is considerably lower than it was 3-4 years ago, but its certainly believable with Marcellus taking over and many of the rigs being moved over to help with that effort.

So, roughly 1400 shallow wells last year, I highly doubt that was done by 6 rigs as Gone4day's link suggested! That'd be 233 wells per year, per rig! The number of directional and horizontal rigs in his link are also far too low. As its an investor site, I wonder if the numbers aren't the number of rigs a certain investment is associated with, rather than attempting to list the total numbers...

Posted on: 2011/3/28 8:41



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