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Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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What a difference two days makes, lol. Old forcast vs. new. If I could, I'd like to make the new one my final answer!


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jpg  old forcast.jpg (57.85 KB)
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jpg  new forecast.JPG (57.63 KB)
1353_518a54cd3c31e.jpg 783X366 px

Posted on: 2013/5/8 9:36


Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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From Mount Joy, PA
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Love that forecast!!!


Will there be a gear swap/sell table this year? I have a few things that could probably be of use to someone else...

Posted on: 2013/5/8 9:38


Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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Quote:

wgmiller wrote:
Love that forecast!!!


Will there be a gear swap/sell table this year? I have a few things that could probably be of use to someone else...


Me too.

Posted on: 2013/5/8 15:12
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Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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2008/6/8 19:45
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Quote:

David wrote:
I am officially out... I'll have to send some chili up with Bruno (although I'm not sending the IC amber!)


Is this a trick again? You said you were out last year too. I expect to see the school students van pulling in to 7 Mtns on Saturday.

Posted on: 2013/5/8 15:22


Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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I need a place to sleep on SAT night and a dog

Posted on: 2013/5/8 22:54
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Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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done deal

Posted on: 2013/5/8 23:10
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Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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Regarding weather, I was playin around with picto-graph forecasts above. Took a closer look yesterday evening of the actual models. Still too early to put much faith in the forecast for next weekend. But we're getting into relatively solid range for the lead up, which can give you an idea of stream conditions at the start.

Lots of rain today through Saturday. Some rain/storms today, showers still around tomorrow, and then it looks like a deluge Friday night through Saturday morning. Massive green blob, steady rain. Another bout late Saturday. Could easily be 3+ inches total from now until early Sunday. Sometime early on Sunday, the last will pass, and from then through Wednesday at least we'll have high pressure and bluebird skies.

Picture massive blowout this weekend with 4 or so dry days to recover before jammers begin to arrive late next week.

From there the uncertainty begins. Next system rolls in late next week. But no model agreement on details. How wet is it? Will it be scattered storms or a big green blob? Where's it goin, who gets what? Just too early to know. It could blow things out again, or be virtually nothing but some clouds.

Posted on: 2013/5/9 8:06


Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground
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2006/9/11 8:26
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Quote:

pcray1231 wrote:
Regarding weather, I was playin around with picto-graph forecasts above. Took a closer look yesterday evening of the actual models. Still too early to put much faith in the forecast for next weekend. But we're getting into relatively solid range for the lead up, which can give you an idea of stream conditions at the start.

Lots of rain today through Saturday. Some rain/storms today, showers still around tomorrow, and then it looks like a deluge Friday night through Saturday morning. Massive green blob, steady rain. Another bout late Saturday. Could easily be 3+ inches total from now until early Sunday. Sometime early on Sunday, the last will pass, and from then through Wednesday at least we'll have high pressure and bluebird skies.

Picture massive blowout this weekend with 4 or so dry days to recover before jammers begin to arrive late next week.

From there the uncertainty begins. Next system rolls in late next week. But no model agreement on details. How wet is it? Will it be scattered storms or a big green blob? Where's it goin, who gets what? Just too early to know. It could blow things out again, or be virtually nothing but some clouds.


http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc ... pe/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Posted on: 2013/5/9 8:28


Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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That's the CMC - aka Canadian model. Of all of the major models, that animation is the easiest to understand for the layperson. But keep in mind it's just one model. There are dozens. And in the long range, that one is historically less accurate than the GFS and Euro (though the CMC did handle Sandy better than any other model).

You don't become confident about what will happen until they all show basically the same thing. But, through Sunday, they all show pretty much the same thing. so.....

Posted on: 2013/5/9 9:24


Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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2011/5/3 12:22
From South Lebanon Township, PA
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Lead up sounds strikingly similar to last year. Everything fished well after having a few days to come back down, except Penns, which was fishable, but borderline IIRC. Spring was flowing well with a little color and the mountain freestoners were charged up and full of water. Blow em' out this weekend I say.

Posted on: 2013/5/9 9:45


Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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For the mods/organizers. Went through this thread and the food thread.

The count for those who have personally responded that they are coming. Plus their verifications of others that are coming (when mentioned by name).

59

Maybes:

7

Plus a few non-specific indications of others, such as "and crew".

I'd assume there's some that haven't chimed in, and others who will decide to come last minute. I'd guess 80+ on Saturday night, at a minimum.

I included my own party. For the record, I am coming and bringing at least 1, Scott, who is not a member of the forum but has been at past jams. His son is a maybe, who has also been to a jam before. We will be tenting. Timing either Wednesday night-Sunday or Friday night-Tuesday, still deciding.

Posted on: 2013/5/9 11:32


Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground
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Plans for me are a maybe Thursday night and in for sure on Friday and Saturday nights. I have a new big coffee urn for us to be using this year!!


Posted on: 2013/5/9 14:51


Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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From Patterson twp, Pa (Beaver Falls)
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Just make sure someone brings the coffee! Had everything to make it, except the coffee last year lol.

Posted on: 2013/5/9 17:10
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Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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I'll have some coffee, gotta have it in the morn.

Posted on: 2013/5/9 17:24
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Re: Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

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2008/1/21 19:15
From Pittsburgh
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Quote:

turkey wrote:
Quote:

David wrote:
I am officially out... I'll have to send some chili up with Bruno (although I'm not sending the IC amber!)


Is this a trick again? You said you were out last year too. I expect to see the school students van pulling in to 7 Mtns on Saturday.


I wish...Friday sarah softball... sat. both horseback riding, 2 soccer games and brenna running plus softball game... sunday I have a softball game as does brenna.
Just letting you know what you have in front of you in 7-10 years!
However, I am very proud I got to run for the first time with brenna in the Pittsburgh Marathon 5k (we raised over $100 for North Side Common Ministries).

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jpg  130.JPG (1,818.73 KB)
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Posted on: 2013/5/9 17:54



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